Russia’s military attack in northeast Ukraine is not going well. Their troops are having a hard time making progress in this area.
Here are the key points about Russia’s offensive:
- Russian forces moved quickly at first but are now slowing down
- Their goal was to create a ‘buffer zone’ near the Russia-Ukraine border
- But the territory gained so far is quite small and hasn’t achieved much
- Russia may be preparing for a larger offensive in this region soon
Why is Russia’s attack struggling in northeast Ukraine? Let’s take a closer look.
Quick Start, Then a Slowdown
At the beginning of May, Russian troops launched a new attack in the Kharkiv region of northeast Ukraine. At first, they advanced quickly through small towns near the Russia-Ukraine border.
However, by around May 14th, the pace of Russia’s offensive began slowing. Their forces got stuck and could not make more significant gains.
The reasons for this slowdown are:
- Ukraine did not very well defend the initial areas Russia captured
- Russia has committed relatively few troops (around 35,000) to this offensive
- They have not brought in more reinforcements to sustain the attack
So, after some early progress, Russia’s offensive stalled in the northeast.
Trying to Create a ‘Buffer Zone’?
One of Russia’s stated goals is to create a ‘buffer zone’ or ‘sanitary zone’ along the border with Ukraine. Russian officials claim this is to protect Russian cities like Belgorod from Ukrainian artillery fire.
However, the limited territory gained by Russia so far does very little to create a true buffer. The captured areas are quite small when you look at a map.
Plus, even with this slight advance, Ukrainian forces can likely still strike the Belgorod region from other areas Russia does not control. So, the supposed ‘buffer zone’ achieved is extremely minimal.
Many experts are sceptical of Russia’s buffer zone reasoning. It seems more like an excuse to continue taking more land from Ukraine over time.
Preparing for a Bigger Offensive?
There are signs that Russia’s recent moves in the northeast may have been just preparation for something bigger soon:
- Russia concentrated this attack on a small section of the front
- The main goal was pulling Ukrainian troops away from other regions
- Russia is building up more forces that could be used in a larger offensive
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy stated Russia has troops massing northwest of Kharkiv, possibly to attack further into Kharkiv or Sumy regions.
If Russia does launch another big offensive in the northeast, its targets could include the following:
- Pushing toward the city of Kharkiv itself to bombard it with artillery
- Trying to capture a wider ‘buffer zone’ along more of the Russia-Ukraine border
For now, it’s a waiting game. Russia’s attack has slowed, but they may soon set the stage for bigger operations in this area.
Russia’s Strategic Failure
No matter what Russia does next, some experts say their invasion of Ukraine has already been a major strategic failure:
- Instead of weakening NATO, the alliance has gotten bigger with two new members (Finland and Sweden)
- Russia wanted to push Western countries away from Ukraine, but Western military aid continues
- Russian claims about creating a ‘buffer zone’ have achieved very little so far
While Russia tells its people this is a wider war against the West, the strong Western response has surprised and challenged the Kremlin’s plans.
This northeastern offensive shows that Russia’s invasion is facing more troubles than expected. What happens next could decide the direction of the entire Ukraine war.
Will Russian forces re-energize their assault? Or will their struggles continue? Only time will tell, but all eyes are on northeastern Ukraine.
