The ongoing war in Ukraine is having a significant impact on Belarus and its opposition movement. This article covers:
- An interview with exiled Belarus opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya
- How the Ukraine war relates to the political situation in Belarus
- Tsikhanouskaya’s efforts to oppose Belarus’ authoritarian president Lukashenko
- The imprisonment of Tsikhanouskaya’s husband, Sergey Tsikhanouski
Tsikhanouskaya believes a Ukrainian victory could help the Belarus opposition overthrow Lukashenko. But with her husband jailed, what challenges does she face?
Belarus Tied to Ukraine Conflict
In an interview, Tsikhanouskaya explained how the Ukraine war directly affects Belarus:
“Belarus and Ukraine are facing the same enemy – Russia’s political ambitions. In Ukraine they are fighting with weapons, killing people. But in Belarus it’s a creeping occupation. Russia interferes in our culture, media, economy, and education to slowly subjugate our nation.”
She stressed that only a solid national identity can prevent Belarus from facing Ukraine’s fate. However, building an anti-Lukashenko movement from exile takes a lot of work.
Opposing Lukashenko from Abroad
Though forced into exile after Belarus’ disputed 2020 election, Tsikhanouskaya aims to unite the opposition:
“At least half a million Belarusians fled due to repression, but 8 million remain. Society has a consensus – we are against Lukashenko’s dictatorship and Belarus joining Russia’s war on Ukraine. We want a free, independent, democratic Belarus through fair elections.”
She plans to weaken Lukashenko through economic and political pressure while strengthening democratic forces within Belarus. She believes even some in Lukashenko’s inner circle want change, fearing being on the wrong side.
Husband’s 18-Year Sentence
One of Tsikhanouskaya’s biggest personal challenges is her husband’s imprisonment. Sergey Tsikhanouski, a blogger and former presidential candidate, was sentenced to 18 years in jail, which his wife calls “a sham.”
Tsikhanouskaya hasn’t heard from Sergey in over a year, and letters have remained undelivered. Lawyers have been banned from visiting, so she doesn’t know if he is even still alive.
“I don’t know how to answer my children about their daddy,” she said. “The regime wants our heroes behind bars to feel the world forgot about them.”
Lasting Trauma of Repression
With thousands of Belarus political prisoners, Tsikhanouskaya fears many are being denied medical care and kept in total isolation. The regime’s mistreatment and murder of activists like Ales Bialiatski deeply troubles her.
“My husband is a personal enemy of Lukashenko. Only strong steps from the democratic world defending human rights can protect our loved ones in jail from being killed without consequence,” she stated.
A Potential Turning Point
Though struggling with personal hardship, Tsikhanouskaya sees the Ukraine war as providing an opportunity. She believes a Ukrainian victory would severely weaken Putin’s regime and its support for Lukashenko.
“Ukraine’s victory, with the democratic world’s assistance, will open a new window for change in Belarus. We are preparing for that trigger moment by strengthening our opposition and civil society.”
Her hope is that there will be enough momentum to spark free elections and transform Belarus into a European-oriented democracy through investment and reforms.
But first, Ukraine must prevail in its fight against Russia’s invasion. Much hangs in the balance for Tsikhanouskaya and Belarus’ future.
