The Conservative party is announcing lots of new policies to try and gain voter support. But the polls show these policies are not really moving their numbers.
- Polling shows Labour with a big lead of around 20 points over the Tories
- The Tories are unveiling many new policies to appeal to their base voters
- But Labour is just saying the Tories can’t be trusted after past “chaos”
- The polls haven’t shifted much despite all the campaigning so far
- In Scotland, the SNP may lose a lot of seats to Labour in this election
Do new policies from the Tories matter if voters have already made up their minds?
The Tories Are Trailing Badly
Polling expert Sir John Curtice says the Conservatives are stuck in the same position as a week ago. Multiple polls show Labour around 20 points ahead on average. Labor is at 44%, while the Tories are at just 23%.
The Conservatives are trying all sorts of bold policy announcements. But Curtice says this “scattergun approach” of lots of different ideas isn’t working so far.
Labour’s Simple Message
According to Curtice, Labour has a straightforward message: You can’t trust the Tories after the chaos and mistakes of the past few years. Every time Labour speaks, they use words like “chaos” and “mistrust” about the Conservatives.
Meanwhile, the Tories are saying they made some mistakes but now have great new policies. They hope their base voters will look past the errors and focus on the future instead.
Policies Vs. Trustworthiness
Labor seems to be taking a lower-risk strategy of not revealing too many policies yet. Their key promises are about not raising taxes like income tax.
But the Tories are firing out lots of new policy ideas, perhaps aimed at their core supporters. Curtice wonders if together these policies don’t really add up to a clear plan.
He says promising lots of tax cuts could make it hard for Labour to fund public services properly if they win power.
Scottish Troubles for the SNP?
In Scotland, recent polls suggest the Scottish National Party (SNP) could lose a huge number of seats to Labour. The SNP may drop from 48 seats to just 16, while Labour could go from 2 seats to 28.
This was after some “drama” with the SNP’s former leader being forced out. The new leader, John Swinney, is less popular than his predecessor, Nicola Sturgeon.
So What Moves Polls in an Election?
Curtice says manifestos, TV debates, policy launches, and campaign mistakes can sometimes shift opinion polls. But often, the whole campaign ends up being “sound and fury signifying nothing” in terms of real change.
For Labour’s low-risk plan to work, they may just need to keep things simple and focused on being the safe, stable choice that voters can trust.
Only time will tell if the Tories’ latest round of policies pay off or if voters have already made up their minds. What’s your view on how this campaign is playing out so far?
